By Andy Brack, editor and publisher | This may be the only political prediction that will become true by the time we head to the polls in November: The weirdest presidential election in American history will get weirder.
In a rational world, presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump’s bloviated reality show of a campaign that scares world leaders because they can’t predict him would get so tangled in misinformation, negativity and hyperbole that he wouldn’t be taken seriously by November. But that’s what people said a year ago, too, right? And he’s taken out governors, senators and traditional politicians.
In a rational world, presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s solid years of experience as First Lady, senator and secretary of state would allow her to float into the White House with nary a worry in the world. But that’s without considering the sure-to-come firestorm over mishandled emails, Benghazi and the vitriol of diehard Republicans who hyperventilate whenever they hear the word “Clinton.”
In this year’s presidential campaign, anything can happen. And probably will. In the months ahead:
Negativity will rule. Clinton’s negatives are above 50 percent, which isn’t good for any candidate. But Trump’s are higher. So most Americans really don’t like either candidate. With that much disdain, it’s pretty hard to convince people to vote for someone instead of against someone. Translation: The negative campaigning we’ve seen in recent months by the folks Trump trounced will get even more negative. This won’t be a campaign season of ideas. It will be a campaign of gotchas.
Turnout will suffer. With so much negativity, turnout may suffer. Sure, some say all of the meanness will motivate voters to get out to the polls so the other side doesn’t win, but that’s for true believers. Most Americans are tired of the incessant political noise. As it turns more negative, more will stay at home than in a long time, figuring their vote just won’t matter.
Odd coalitions will develop. With Trump focusing on trade and the loss of American jobs to foreign countries, he’s starting to resonate with frontline union voters, much to the chagrin of union bosses whose flocks generally are reliably Democratic. Similarly, disaffected Republican voters who can’t hold their noses and vote for Trump because they don’t trust him as a “real Republican” may stay home. That would be a default vote for Clinton. Or they will vote for a third party candidate, which also is a vote for Clinton, or they will hold their noses and actually vote for Clinton.
The unexpected will happen. Whether there’s a new Sarah Palin or if the GOP Senate decides to have a vote on a new Supreme Court justice, something big will happen in the next few months that will put the print pundits, TV talking heads and political class into a hissy fit. There will be all sorts of new intricate calculations with the bottom line that either candidate could still win.
Down-ballot effect. The GOP is already running a parallel campaign to Trump’s to ensure they keep control of the U.S. House and U.S. Senate. But with so much uncertainty with Trump at the top of the GOP ticket, Democrats — who tend to do better in presidential election years — will take some seats held by Republicans, which should change legislative politics in Washington.
In the months ahead as politics spirals out of control, voters should breathe deeply and try not to get bent out of shape. Nasty, personal attacks will come. Instead of getting sucked into this void, perhaps it is better to simply consider which candidate would be best for the country — Trump or Clinton. Which, you might ask, would be better able to deal with foreign threats — the one who seems to make it up as he goes along or the one who has met with world leaders?
Or you can do what we’re considering: Voting absentee so we can get out of town, turn off the television and enjoy a sunset cocktail as the rest of the world is riveted by a living mystery novel.
Have a comment? Send to: feedback@statehousereport.com
We Can Do Better, South Carolina!