About this time every four years in the presidential selection process, it’s important to remember that nothing is over until it’s over. Two or three unexpected things often happen – generally after Labor Day – that send campaigns spinning, often in more ways than one.
And how they respond sometimes makes a difference in the outcome of the race. Sometimes not.
These so-called “October surprises” have included the impact of a possible Iranian hostage deal that never came before President Jimmy Carter’s 1980 reelection effort and a drunk driving arrest for then-candidate George W. Bush that was unearthed days before the 2000 election. And no one can forget Donald Trump’s explicit 2005 language about grabbing women that emerged a month before election day in 2016.
This year is no different. Possibilities that could rollick the 2024 presidential campaign in the days ahead range from pure scandal to a foreign policy win or loss that could cause big problems. Somebody might make a big debate mistake. Or Trump, known for rambling and not sticking to a script, could say something so egregious or outrageous that his campaign tanks among the moderate voters he needs to win.
The first surprise dropped early this year.
Just a month ago as President Joe Biden’s campaign sputtered, former GOP President Donald Trump’s victory seemed almost assured. But when Biden put his Democratic Party’s interest and the country before personal ambition by endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris, the race flipped on a dime.
The enthusiasm of her joyful campaigning with a running mate who sounds like a guy you really want to have a beer with has been nothing short of remarkable. The Democratic National Convention that initially looked like it would be almost funereal ended up being an unexpected reminder that Democrats, too, can show over-the-top patriotism and embrace freedom, apple pie and the American way. The Democratic convention almost looked more of a celebration of America than the Republican one weeks before.
All of this has thrown Trump for a loop, as Washington Post analyst Dan Balz observed: “Trump has never experienced anything like the past month. Vice President Kamala Harris, a Black and Indian American woman, has pushed the White alpha male to the sidelines of the national conversation, denying him the spotlight he craves and constantly demands.”
Nevertheless, Harris is now leading in a few battleground polls – not what would have been predicted just a month back. “The Democrats are in the game,” Balz writes, “the former president is in a box, and it’s not clear whether he knows what to do.”
(Pro tip: He’ll figure it out and come out blazing. He is, you should remember, a politician.)
Republicans should worry about the new enthusiasm that is building a 2024 army for the Democrats. Not only could you hear it in speeches by Michelle Obama, Oprah Winfrey, Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, but you can see it in what The New York Times calls “an unprecedented wave of small-dollar donations for Harris,” who nabbed 1.5 million new donors in the last 11 days of July that raised an astonishing $183 million.
But Democrats, some of whom seem to be counting their chickens before they’re hatched, need to remember that about half of Americans still aren’t happy with them. The election will still be close.
Maybe they should worry about possible efforts by Republican election deniers to tip the scales in swing counties around the country. An July investigation by Rolling Stone magazine described in The Bulwark highlighted how “at least 70 pro-Trump election conspiracists [are] currently working as county election officials who have questioned the validity of elections or delayed or refused to certify results.” According to the analysis, 22 of the 70 “already have ‘refused or delayed certification’ in recent past elections.”
Bottom line: As a country, we’ve got a long 10 weeks left. And anything could happen.
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