By Andy Brack | Former Gov. Nikki Haley has a timing problem in her bid to win the 2024 Republican nomination for president.
She can either keep playing it safe, hoping frontrunner and former President Donald Trump stumbles into a conviction and out of real contention. Or she can start hammering him hard now just weeks away from January’s Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary before the Feb. 24 GOP primary in South Carolina. To date, she’s mostly given him a pass.
“She needs a strong finish in Iowa, at least a near win or better in New Hampshire to make South Carolina a legit battleground,” said Greenville Republican analyst Chip Felkel. “She needs to show he is really vulnerable, to crack the inevitability of Trump winning the nomination, and she’s not going to by playing nice.
“There is way too much she’s not been using. If she doesn’t unleash the dragons, she’s not running for anything but vice president, or 2028.”
College of Charleston political scientist Gibbs Knotts said he thought Haley needed to beat Trump in her home state – or get very close. According to a November Winthrop Poll, Trump was way ahead among Republican and GOP-leaning independent voters – with 48% of voter support, compared to Haley’s 19%.
“She would need to exceed expectations in Iowa (maybe get second) and exceed expectations in New Hampshire (continue to close the gap with Trump),” Knotts said. “She would also need other candidates to drop out, particularly Christie and DeSantis.”
But the race is like no other presidential race ever. It’s tough to figure because of all of Trump’s legal woes. He faces 91 indictments in four cases in federal and state courts. If Haley is seen as the main challenger after the early primaries, then she might benefit, especially if Trump becomes the first former president to be convicted of a crime. About 45% of Republican voters say they won’t vote for Trump if he is convicted of a felony before the election, according to a recent poll.
But one longtime political observer, who asked not to be named, didn’t see Haley winning the South Carolina primary.
“She is playing for the long haul and playing safe for the general election. I think she is counting on two scenarios – one that Trump is in jail before the election and she can win the primary. The other is that if he wins, she can still be vice president. The first fits with her penchant for going to long-term strategies which includes 2028.”
Furman University political scientist Danielle Vinson said Haley’s play-it-safe strategy isn’t a recipe to beat Trump. Rather, it’s a way to be in the right place if he fails.
“If she wants to win and not just be the last person standing if something happens to Trump to take him out of the race, she needs to start giving Trump supporters a reason to vote for her rather than him,” Vinson said. “The only message that might work is to focus on Trump’s vulnerability in the general election, which ironically doesn’t actually require her to criticize Trump.
“He just needs to get voters to play the long game rather than the primary game. She can win independent voters in a general election; it’s not clear Trump can. She has not really been willing to do that thus far, and I don’t know if it would work.”
In the South Carolina primary, Haley’s success may end up depending on an unlikely source of voters – Democrats who want Trump defeated. Because Democrats have a Feb. 3 primary and their only real choice is President Joe Biden, many may figure he will win and may opt out to play political ball in the Republican primary on Feb. 24.
There’s not been a lot of visible appeal to Democrats, but who knows what’s really happening on the darker side of the Internet?
Andy Brack is editor and publisher of Statehouse Report and the Charleston City Paper. Have a comment? Send to: feedback@statehousereport.com.
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