By Andy Brack, editor and publisher | All you have to do to know that the race to be the GOP candidate for governor in 2026 has already started is to answer this question: Why is state Attorney General Alan Wilson constantly at the double murder trial of disbarred lawyer Alex Murdaugh?
Just watch and you’ll see he’s not doing much of anything to help the prosecution. So day after day, he’s just posing – politically grandstanding for the state and national media to look like he’s intimately involved.
Even without the trial, Wilson, whose office wouldn’t answer questions about why he was continually at the trial, would be a top potential candidate for governor in 2026. Current GOP Gov. Henry McMaster is now a lame duck after just starting his second full term. So his position will be open in just under four years.
So while it’s early to start looking at 2026 candidates, Wilson’s ongoing media presence kind of begs a look at what happens when McMaster hangs it up. Besides Wilson, here are possible gubernatorial candidates:
Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette. While the Upstate businesswoman just started her second term as the state’s number two leader in the executive branch, most people outside of GOP stalwarts aren’t very familiar with her. Look for her to ratchet up her presence over the next couple of years if she is planning a serious bid for the top job.
State Sen. Shane Massey. The 47-year-old state Senate majority leader from Edgefield County checks off a lot of boxes for an ideal GOP candidate. He’s relatively young. He has 14 years of experience in the legislature. And he courts the red meat contingent of the Republican Party with support for conservative causes, such as figuring out ways to make abortions illegal. But while he may flirt with running for governor because it’s a neat job, you wonder whether he’d want to give up the considerable time invested in garnering power in the legislature – since the General Assembly has the real power in this state. If Massey waited a few years, he could control the Senate agenda even more than he now influences it.
John Warren. The Greenville businessman who challenged McMaster in 2018 easily could self-fund another campaign for governor. Since his narrow runoff loss five years ago, he’s continued to build credibility among the GOP base by pushing conservative measures on education, accountability, judges and abortion through a political action committee, South Carolina’s Conservative Future. Warren didn’t run in 2022, but he’s kept his name in the mix to be a potential contender in 2026.
One of the Freedom Cause firebrands. There are more than a dozen state lawmakers in the fiery, ultra-right House Freedom Caucus. More than likely one or more of them will take their big heads to the people across the state in an attempt to make it even bigger. There’s not a particular one of them who has yet distinguished himself yet, but these folks have got more than three years to flame out or try to mask their nuttiness to keep from scaring mainstream voters.
U.S. Sen. Tim Scott. While the Lowcountry Republican currently is flirting with running for president, it’s not beyond the possibility that he may decide to throw his hat in the governor’s race in 2026. One political observer told us, “I’ve always assumed he was more interested in state politics than national. Maybe all the encouragement to run for national office has changed that, but I still think the state job would interest him.” And maybe something that would really interest him is if he were to run with his buddy Trey Gowdy, the former congressman from the Upstate, as his running mate.
Whatever happens in 2026, the lead-up to the governor’s race certainly will be interesting … and it’s likely to show new fissures in the Republican Party as McMaster relaxes a grip on it that he’s had since he was chairman in the 1990s.
Andy Brack is editor and publisher of Statehouse Report and the Charleston City Paper. Have a comment? Send to: feedback@statehousereport.com.
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