STATEHOUSE REPORT | ISSUE 21.46 | NOV. 18, 2022
BIG STORY: Haley may be 2024 threat here to Trump, poll shows
NEWS BRIEFS: Teacher vacancies in S.C. hit record high
LOWCOUNTRY, Ariail: Pollster
COMMENTARY, Brack: Why state Democrats were embarrassed at the polls
SPOTLIGHT: ACLU of South Carolina
FEEDBACK: Send us your thoughts
MYSTERY PHOTO: Looking forward
Haley may be 2024 threat here to Trump, poll shows
By Andy Brack | A new poll illustrates how South Carolina’s traditional first-in-the-South presidential primary in 2024 could pose strategic problems for former President Donald Trump, who announced a bid for reelection this week.
A new Winthrop Poll suggests Trump is leading among Palmetto State Republicans, but only by the hair of his chinny-chin chin. Who’s potentially in the way? Kiawah Island resident and former S.C. Gov. Nikki Haley, a former ambassador to the United Nations for Trump.
In the new poll taken before election day, some 45 percent of Republican voters in South Carolina said they would back Trump for the 2024 GOP nomination. But just 8 points back was Haley at 37 percent. “Someone else” was mentioned 10% of the time and 8% said they were not sure. Not mentioned was another South Carolinian purportedly mulling a presidential run – U.S. Sen. Tim Scott, who just won a landslide reelection victory.
“Haley has a strong showing against the former president, who is popular within his party,” said Winthrop Poll director Scott Huffmon. “Since this was conducted before the disappointing midterm results, for which many Republicans blame Trump, her star may have risen even further.”
Soon after Trump announced his third bid to be president, S.C. Gov. Henry McMaster issued an endorsement. But there was no word from Scott or Haley, who has said she’ll make her plans known in January.
Other poll results include:
Abortion. An overwhelming number of South Carolina voters – 92% of Democrats and 80% of Republicans – said women should be able to get a legal abortion if pregnancy threatens their lives or health. If the pregnancy was the result of a rape, 82% said women should be able to get a legal abortion. When asked if women should be able to get a legal abortion for any reason, about three in four Democrats said yes versus one in four Republicans, according to the poll.
Medical marijuana. More than three-quarters of S.C. voters favor medical marijuana, but that dropped to half when they were asked about recreational marijuana.
Sports gambling. Half of respondents said they favored legalized gambling on sports.
Same-sex marriage. More than half of all respondents said same-sex marriages should be recognized by law as valid. But half of Republicans disagreed.
Church and state. Almost seven in 10 of those polled said it was important for the country to maintain the legal separation between church and state. Half said the federal government should not declare the United States to be a Christian nation, but a third said it should, according to the poll.
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Teacher vacancies in S.C. hit record high
Staff reports | Teacher vacancies are getting worse in South Carolina. They went up 39 percent over the previous year as of the start of the 2022-23 school year, according to a new report from the Center for Educator Recruitment, Retention and Advancement. School districts fell short nearly 1,500 teachers of their desired goal, the report said.
According to a summary of the report, teacher vacancies got worse – even though there were fewer teaching positions this year. The study showed there were 1,474 vacancies this school year, compared to 1,063 a year earlier.
Also, one in seven educators did not return to a teaching or service position in the same S.C. school district as last year – a reflection of how districts struggle to keep seasoned educators in place and constantly have to recruit.
In other recent news:
Republicans win narrow U.S. House majority. Republicans formally won 218 seats in the House after a week of counting votes. The chamber now flips from Democratic control to GOP control, but the margin is much closer than predicted before the election.
Some leading Republicans try to ignore Trump’s announcement. Former President Donald Trump this week announced a presidential bid for the 2024 election. But some Republicans didn’t take too kindly to the announcement and insisted there were more pressing legislative matters — and that they needed to deal with the party fallout of performing less impressively in the midterm elections than predicted. Meanwhile, S.C. Gov. Henry McMaster endorsed the former president’s campaign.
S.C. gets “F” on preterm birth rate. South Carolina has the nation’s fifth-worst preterm birth rate according to a new March of Dimes report.
State begins issuing 2022 tax rebates. The state Department of Revenue has started issuing tax rebates of up to $800 to eligible South Carolinians.
IAAM blessed by faith leaders ahead of January opening. Dozens of faith leaders from North America and Africa came together Nov. 16 for a Blessing of the Water and Sacred Ground service at the new International African American Museum. The museum is slated to open Jan. 21, 2023.
Newly-elected Berkeley Co. school board makes major changes at first meeting. Upon its first meeting with three brand new members, the Berkeley County school board fired superintendent Deon Jackson and hired a new one that same meeting. The new board also discussed critical race theory (CRT) and said it will provide guidelines on what teachers can and cannot teach. Some lawyers say the firing and replacement of the superintendent were done illegally, while activists criticized the board’s decision on CRT.
New Covid cases drop. State health officials reported 2,944 new cases of Covid-19 in the week starting Nov. 6. That’s a drop of 1,143 cases from the previous week. For the week ending Nov. 12, state officials reported 17 people died from Covid-19. As of Nov. 14, there were 249 people (up 16 patients from the previous week) who were hospitalized with the virus, eight of whom were on ventilators.
Pollster
Cartoonist Robert Ariail often interprets things a little differently, but always has an interesting take on what’s going on in South Carolina. Love the cartoon? Hate it? What do you think: feedback@statehousereport.com.
Why state Democrats were embarrassed at the polls
By Andy Brack | The utter shellacking that South Carolina Democrats got in the 2022 midterms is just plain embarrassing.
Unfortunately, they can’t blame it on a twisted redistricting of the S.C. House of Representatives by House Republicans. While Democrats lost seven seats there to allow the GOP to take a dominating 88-36 margin, they also lost two statewide races by wide margins.
“The governor’s race was a 17.5-point blowout, but the [state] superintendent of education race, which should have been close, was a 13-point blowout,” Winthrop University pollster Scott Huffmon said. “There are statewide races with no Democratic nominee. This shows a lack of depth on the bench of candidates and the concomitant lack of successful recruiting of candidates.”
Spot on. What’s worse is the paltry coordinated effort by the party and subpar work by individual candidates to get out the base vote. A big reason for that was the lack of resources. The state Democratic Party obviously didn’t have much national money to spend in the elections because it’s still reeling from fallout over the 2020 loss of now Democratic National Committee Chair Jaime Harrison, who spent $130 million to lose to GOP U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham. Why, ask national funders, spend money in ruby-red South Carolina again if that much money can’t defeat a polarizing figure like Graham?
College of Charleston political science professor Kendra Stwart pointed to two other problems for state Democrats in 2022.
“Overall, voter turnout was down from the last midterm/gubernatorial election – which likely was a result of disproportionately fewer Democrats turning out,” she said. “In general, I would say there was a lack of a driving issue or message that excited Democratic voters to bring them to the polls.”
In politics, successful campaigns follow four Ms – media, message, money and machine. Democratic gubernatorial nominee Joe Cunningham did a good job of getting in the press, but he and other Democrats suffered by lack of a galvanizing message, too little money and a machine that seems to be rusting in a tobacco field, stuck in the past.
“It is not unusual in states where one party dominates for voters to feel like their vote does not matter since there is no way their party will win,” Stewart observed. “I think Cunningham’s major loss could be because his campaign was not able to mobilize new, younger voters to get to the polls and support him.
“He was also not a candidate that excited Black voters in the way other candidates have – and since Black voters make up a large portion of Democratic voters in South Carolina, their turnout is critical.”
Furman University political scientist Danielle Vinson said Cunningham was the right kind of candidate, but he had an uphill battle.
“Cunningham is exactly the kind of Democrat you’d want to run in a conservative state, but we haven’t had any close statewide elections in years. And Democratic voters in the state feel like it’s a lost cause,” she said. And that, in turn, makes it difficult to get people out to vote – even with early voting.
Don’t lose sight of another reason for sweeping Democratic losses – Republicans generally ran great campaigns – when there was someone to run against. But look at all of the House seats, particularly in the gerrymandered, bright-red Upstate that had no Democratic challengers. There wasn’t a reason for a reliable Democratic voter to go to the polls and vote against GOP positions on abortion or other issues. So they just didn’t bother.
State Democrats face some hard choices if they want to remain viable in the South Carolina political environment. While there’s sure to be a leadership shake-up, they also need to take a history lesson from Republicans and look what they did in the 1970s and 1980s to mature from a minority party to a majority powerhouse. Across the state, Democrats need to invest in better campaigning, better mobilitation and better use of resources. Otherwise, it’s going to be more of the same and too many voters won’t have real choices – or real political checks and balances.
Andy Brack is editor and publisher of Statehouse Report and the Charleston City Paper. Have a comment? Send to: feedback@statehousereport.com.
ACLU of South Carolina
The public spiritedness of our underwriters allows us to bring Statehouse Report to you at no cost. This week’s spotlighted underwriter is the American Civil Liberties Union. The ACLU of South Carolina is dedicated to preserving the civil liberties enshrined in the U.S. Constitution and Bill of Rights. Through communications, lobbying and litigation, the ACLU of South Carolina works to preserve and enhance the rights of all citizens of South Carolina. Foremost among these rights are freedom of speech and religion, the right to equal treatment under law, and the right to privacy.
Any reactions to what’s going on in South Carolina?
Have a comment? Send your letters or comments to: feedback@statehousereport.com. Make sure to provide your contact details (name, hometown and phone number for verification. Letters are limited to 150 words.
Looking ahead
Here’s a statue that’s been around for a few years. To win this week, you’ll need to identify who the subject is and where the statue is. Bonus points for telling us even more. Send your guess – and your name and hometown – to feedback@statehousereport.com.
Last week’s image of “Historic Church,” showed the Indiantown Presbyterian Church in rural Williamsburg County.
Bill Segars of Hartsville shared, “The original Indiantown Church was burned on Aug. 27, 1780 by British Major James Wemyss because he deemed it to be ‘a sedition shop.’ Indiantown Presbyterian Church was one of 13 colonial churches burned in South Carolina during the American Revolution. This Meeting House-style building, built in 1830, is the third building to serve the Indiantown area. This building was razed and a basement added under it in 1919. The church was established in 1757 and continues to have an active congregation today.”
David M. Taylor of Darlington added that this was inscribed on a marker outside of the church:
“Organized in 1757 with John James and Robert Wilson as founding elders. Burned by the British in 1780 as “a sedition shop.” Rebuilt after the Revolution. Present building begun in 1890, remodeled in 1919. Maj. John James, Revolutionary hero, is buried in the churchyard.“
Others who correctly identified the photo were Allan Peel of San Antonio, Texas; Jay Altman and Elizabeth Jones, both of Columbia; George Graf of Palmyra, Va.; Jacie Godfrey of Florence; Penny Forrester of Tallahassee, Fla.; David Lupo of Mount Pleasant; and Pat Keadle of Wagener.
>> Send us a mystery picture. If you have a photo that you believe will stump readers, send it along (but make sure to tell us what it is because it may stump us too!) Send to: feedback@statehousereport.com and mark it as a photo submission. Thanks.
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