STATEHOUSE REPORT | ISSUE 21.44 | NOV. 4, 2022
BIG STORY: 2022 election will be wild ride
NEWS BRIEFS: S.C. poll workers on alert for election day
LOWCOUNTRY, Ariail: Cracker jacks
COMMENTARY, Brack: Crush hate
SPOTLIGHT: Riley Institute at Furman University
FEEDBACK: Send us your thoughts
MYSTERY PHOTO: Rustic
2022 election will be wild ride
By Andy Brack | About the only thing you can probably take to the bank in this year’s crazy election is that almost no one really knows what’s going to happen. And there are two big reasons for that:
- Mum’s the word. Supporters of former GOP President Donald Trump often aren’t as open about their preferences with pollsters as in the past. In turn, pollsters are pretty worried they’ll be very wrong at predicting state and national levels. Why all of the confusion? There are fewer landline phones. People also are screening calls more often or just not answering questions. And there is a plethora of new polling techniques that are being thrown like birdshot at the election targets in the desperate attempt to figure out what’s happening. Bottom line: It’s hard to predict elections with limited or suspect data.
- Roevember or red surge? Another big unknown is a predicted surge in women voters outraged over the June decision by the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade decision protecting abortion. But will it actually happen? Some predict a “Roevember” vote of women opposing GOP candidates in waves — just as GOP voters predict a Republican red tidal wave of voters who support Trump and think the man who beat him in 2020 — current President Joe Biden — is a walking nightmare. Bottom line: Because it’s unclear who will turnout, it’s even harder to predict the election. A race that you think might be a no-brainer could actually get turned on end if mad women or mad Trumpers turn out more than expected.
So as you’re watching the midterm election returns next Tuesday, it might be good to keep these two things in mind — and two more trends:
- Tuesday’s early numbers will tend to favor Democrats because a lot more of them seem to take advantage of early voting.
- Republicans across the state and nation likely will tend to catch up later Tuesday night as in-person voters’ ballots are blended into the results because they, election observers say, tend to vote more in-person on election day.
So hold on and buckle up for what is going to be a wild election year. If you want to avoid the back-and-forth emotional tussle of election night, you might want to do what President Harry Truman did in 1948 (remember the “Dewey wins!” headline) — eat a ham sandwich, drink a glass of buttermilk, go to bed early and read about it on Wednesday morning.
Here’s a look at the election landscape in South Carolina:
Federal candidates
The most prominent congressional race of the season pits freshman GOP Rep. Nancy Mace against Democratic challenger Dr. Annie Andrews in the contest for the First Congressional District.
In recent weeks, there’s been a lot of punching and counterpunching in the district, which was slightly gerrymandered to favor Mace by the S.C. General Assembly. And with Mace as an incumbent with a growing national profile, she’s slightly favored. But Andrews’ aggressive calling out of Mace on abortion and gun control may push her ahead.
Across the state in six other congressional races, the parties currently holding the seats are expected to keep them. Also, U.S. Sen. Tim Scott of Charleston is widely favored to return to Washington.
Statewide candidates
At the top of the ticket is incumbent Republican Gov. Henry McMaster, who at 75 is one of the oldest governors in the country. While McMaster is desperately trying to not talk about his age, Democratic challenger Joe Cunningham is trying to make the election about age, abortion, marijuana, sports betting, income taxes and just about anything else that might stick. While internal Democratic polls have shown Cunningham to be in striking distance, there’s not much talk of them lately, indicating that McMaster is likely to squeak out a win in Republican-friendly South Carolina.
Perhaps the most consequential race of the cycle is for state superintendent of education, which pits veteran Republican wonk Ellen Weaver against Democratic teacher and advocate Lisa Ellis. About the only thing that’s hit the press in this election are a few stories about whether Weaver got a master’s degree that is required (she announced in October that she got it, reportedly finishing 11 courses in rocket time of six months). With the GOP holding this seat for a few years, Weaver is favored.
With GOP incumbents serving as the rest of the state’s constitutional officers — and with Democrats offering little or no campaign activity — look for smooth reelections for S.C. Attorney General Alan Wilson, S.C. Commissioner of Agriculture Hugh Weathers, Secretary of State Mark Hammond and State Treasurer Curtis Loftis.
S.C. House candidates
With 2022 being an off-year election, no state Senate seats are up for grabs. But each of the 124 S.C. House seats are. Due to gerrymandering by the GOP House, it’s a foregone conclusion that the chamber will remain in Republican hands.
Virtually all of the House seats in the Upstate – about 40 districts – heavily favor Republican candidates. When combined with gerrymandered seats in the rest of the state, look for the GOP to control at least 80 of the state’s House seats in 2023 — just as they do now.
- Have a comment? Send to: feedback@statehousereport.com.
S.C. poll workers on alert for election day
Staff reports | Election officials across the state are on alert, according to one story, “for politically motivated problems that could stem from poll watchers and observers – everyday citizens who sit in at polling places and watch to make sure things run smoothly – or from others who take their politics seriously enough to act on them beyond the voting booth itself.”
Charleston County officials said they were preparing for threats on election day, according to WCBD. No threats or incidents have been reported in the past, but election officials are preparing for the worst amid multiple incidents nationwide.
In other recent news:
Graham must testify in Georgia case, U.S. Supreme Court rules. U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., took his desire not to testify to a Georgia grand jury on Election 2020 inquiries to the U.S. Supreme Court and lost. On Tuesday, the court ruled in an unsigned order that he should testify because questioning allowed by lower courts was limited and had appropriate safeguards to avoid constitutional conflicts. For months, Graham has tried to get out of testifying about questions he asked and more related to President Donald Trump’s loss in Georgia, which prompted a prosecutor to look into allegations of election shenanigans. Now, Graham is currently scheduled to testify on November 17.
Ellis, Weaver have only debate. Democratic state superintendent of education candidate Lisa Ellis and Republican Ellen Weaver debated over solutions to the state’s school system Nov. 2. Ellis urged state leaders to listen to educators about pay and working conditions, while Weaver stressed listening to parents more about where their children attend school.
Right-wing group admits doctoring video attacking schools. According to a news story: “State Rep. R.J. May, R-Lexington, previously said his group did not create the recording of an EL Education employee, purportedly instructional specialist Tarika Sullivan. But on Nov. 1 he acknowledged that members of his organization altered the raw footage they received.:
Lawmakers still at impasse on abortion. Time is running out for lawmakers to make further restrictions to an abortion ban as election day approaches.
Health officials warn of ‘tripledemic’. With temperatures dropping across the United States, a spike of Covid-19 cases and the flu are on the rise. In the past few months, though, health officials have also seen an increase in RSV, a respiratory syncytial virus, among patients. Meanwhile, DHEC recently recorded 3,459 new Covid cases and six deaths.
New Palmetto Network debuts. A new South Carolina-based television station, The Palmetto Network, debuts this month to provide varied and local programming to hundreds of thousands of people across the state. Available online at ThePalmettoNetwork.com and Apple TV and free on Roku and Amazon Fire TV, the network is a dream come true for seasoned videographer Neal Kinard of Charleston.
Cracker jacks
Cartoonist Robert Ariail often interprets things a little differently, but always has an interesting take on what’s going on in South Carolina. Love the cartoon? Hate it? What do you think: feedback@statehousereport.com.
Crush hate
By Andy Brack | In an America where the majority claims to follow Jesus, why is there so much hate?
Hate, familiar in the South during the Jim Crow era and civil rights struggles, lately seems to have overshadowed what once masked it – hope for America and democracy. These days, there’s growing disappointment and concern for the future of America’s experiment with true liberty – not the venomous mantras spouted by extremists, political lemmings and do-nothing acolytes of the Make America Great Again nonsense.
Hate is in San Francisco, where an extremist broke into the home of the U.S. Speaker of the House and whacked her husband in the skull with a hammer.
Hate is rife in Washington where armed cowards stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6. Five police officers who served that day died.
Hate fuels angry mobs who turn up at rallies across the county where red-capped politicians spew the incendiary rhetoric of division.
Hate runs amok on the Internet, where armchair bandits too afraid to say nasty things in public have little problem with posting spiteful, vile comments online in the safety of their man caves. Online hate fueled a new breed of racist that led to 2015 murders like nine worshippers at Emanuel AME Church in Charleston.
Hate is in South Carolina where the so-called South Carolina Freedom Caucus of some state legislators admitted to doctoring an audio recording that was used to attack a school district.
This list of hate can go on and on in an America polarized into political tribes as distortions of truth, misrepresentations of facts, and the use of rage and fear cause the country to sink lower and lower.
It has got to stop. As a country, we need to crush hate. We need to make it unacceptable in all forms. But what do we do?
A noted chef observed, “Part of the reason for the hate is fear. When threatened with losing things important to us, hate develops.”
A former senior Obama Administration official pointed to Republicans, who have long used fear and division to win elections: “The GOP made it OK to say and believe all these awful things out loud. Don’t fall into the trap of ‘both sides. The only way to shut this down is to win elections.”
Heidi Beirich, who worked for years at the Southern Poverty Law Center documenting hate groups across America, told us she believed leaders, particularly conservatives, needed to denounce hatred, anti-semitism and election denialism threatening our democracy.
“There is the usual hope that people will stand up against hate when they see it and vote it down at the ballot box,” said Beirich, co-founder of the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism. “If decent people don’t speak up, this is never going to change.”
A noted college professor said much the same thing: “Ignoring the problem and staying silent are not options for those who are bothered by this. Decent people can’t be silent.”
So here’s the challenge for the vast majority of Americans who are decent people: Stand up for our democracy on Nov. 8. Use election day to send the clear message that’s not about your tribe, but about electing decent people to get into office to try to stem this hate that is growing like a summer algal bloom.
If you’re silent, it won’t get better. Use the ballot box to crush hate, defend democracy and suffocate the fear that too many political candidates and armchair bandits are spewing.
The late Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. once said, “Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.”
Andy Brack is editor and publisher of Statehouse Report and the Charleston City Paper. Have a comment? Send to: feedback@statehousereport.com.
Riley Institute at Furman University
The public spiritedness of our underwriters allows us to bring Statehouse Report to you at no cost. This week’s spotlighted underwriter is Furman University’s Riley Institute, which broadens student and community perspectives about issues critical to South Carolina’s progress. It builds and engages present and future leaders, creates and shares data-supported information about the state’s core challenges, and links the leadership body to sustainable solutions.
Launched in 1999, the Institute is named for former South Carolina Governor and former United States Secretary of Education Richard W. (Dick) Riley. It is committed to nonpartisanship in all it does and to a rhetoric-free, facts-based approach to change.
- Learn more about the Riley Institute.
- Also learn more about the Riley Institute’s Center for Education Policy and Leadership.
Agree or disagree? Write a letter
Have a comment? Send your letters or comments to: feedback@statehousereport.com. Make sure to provide your contact details (name, hometown and phone number for verification. Letters are limited to 150 words.
Rustic
Here’s a rustic-looking fall image. It’s in South Carolina, but where? Send your guess – and your name and hometown – to feedback@statehousereport.com.
Last week’s image of “Dark water,” showed the Riverwalk at Conway Marina on the Waccamaw River in Conway. Congratulations to about a dozen folks who correctly identified it, including Grace Gifford from Conway (and who might have had an advantage on many.) Others who identified it were Jay Altman and Elizabeth Jones of Columbia; Allan Peel of San Antonio, Texas; George Graf of Palmyra, Va.; Jacie Godfrey of Florence; Lawrence Moore of Folly Beach; David Lupo of Mount Pleasant; Penny Forrester of Tallahassee, Fla.; Pat Keadle of Wagener; and Doug Friedman of Charleston.
>> Send us a mystery picture. If you have a photo that you believe will stump readers, send it along (but make sure to tell us what it is because it may stump us too!) Send to: feedback@statehousereport.com and mark it as a photo submission. Thanks.
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