By Andy Brack | About the only thing you can probably take to the bank in this year’s crazy election is that almost no one really knows what’s going to happen. And there are two big reasons for that:
- Mum’s the word. Supporters of former GOP President Donald Trump often aren’t as open about their preferences with pollsters as in the past. In turn, pollsters are pretty worried they’ll be very wrong at predicting state and national levels. Why all of the confusion? There are fewer landline phones. People also are screening calls more often or just not answering questions. And there is a plethora of new polling techniques that are being thrown like birdshot at the election targets in the desperate attempt to figure out what’s happening. Bottom line: It’s hard to predict elections with limited or suspect data.
- Roevember or red surge? Another big unknown is a predicted surge in women voters outraged over the June decision by the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade decision protecting abortion. But will it actually happen? Some predict a “Roevember” vote of women opposing GOP candidates in waves — just as GOP voters predict a Republican red tidal wave of voters who support Trump and think the man who beat him in 2020 — current President Joe Biden — is a walking nightmare. Bottom line: Because it’s unclear who will turnout, it’s even harder to predict the election. A race that you think might be a no-brainer could actually get turned on end if mad women or mad Trumpers turn out more than expected.
So as you’re watching the midterm election returns next Tuesday, it might be good to keep these two things in mind — and two more trends:
- Tuesday’s early numbers will tend to favor Democrats because a lot more of them seem to take advantage of early voting.
- Republicans across the state and nation likely will tend to catch up later Tuesday night as in-person voters’ ballots are blended into the results because they, election observers say, tend to vote more in-person on election day.
So hold on and buckle up for what is going to be a wild election year. If you want to avoid the back-and-forth emotional tussle of election night, you might want to do what President Harry Truman did in 1948 (remember the “Dewey wins!” headline) — eat a ham sandwich, drink a glass of buttermilk, go to bed early and read about it on Wednesday morning.
Here’s a look at the election landscape in South Carolina:
Federal candidates
The most prominent congressional race of the season pits freshman GOP Rep. Nancy Mace against Democratic challenger Dr. Annie Andrews in the contest for the First Congressional District.
In recent weeks, there’s been a lot of punching and counterpunching in the district, which was slightly gerrymandered to favor Mace by the S.C. General Assembly. And with Mace as an incumbent with a growing national profile, she’s slightly favored. But Andrews’ aggressive calling out of Mace on abortion and gun control may push her ahead.
Across the state in six other congressional races, the parties currently holding the seats are expected to keep them. Also, U.S. Sen. Tim Scott of Charleston is widely favored to return to Washington.
Statewide candidates
At the top of the ticket is incumbent Republican Gov. Henry McMaster, who at 75 is one of the oldest governors in the country. While McMaster is desperately trying to not talk about his age, Democratic challenger Joe Cunningham is trying to make the election about age, abortion, marijuana, sports betting, income taxes and just about anything else that might stick. While internal Democratic polls have shown Cunningham to be in striking distance, there’s not much talk of them lately, indicating that McMaster is likely to squeak out a win in Republican-friendly South Carolina.
Perhaps the most consequential race of the cycle is for state superintendent of education, which pits veteran Republican wonk Ellen Weaver against Democratic teacher and advocate Lisa Ellis. About the only thing that’s hit the press in this election are a few stories about whether Weaver got a master’s degree that is required (she announced in October that she got it, reportedly finishing 11 courses in rocket time of six months). With the GOP holding this seat for a few years, Weaver is favored.
With GOP incumbents serving as the rest of the state’s constitutional officers — and with Democrats offering little or no campaign activity — look for smooth reelections for S.C. Attorney General Alan Wilson, S.C. Commissioner of Agriculture Hugh Weathers, Secretary of State Mark Hammond and State Treasurer Curtis Loftis.
S.C. House candidates
With 2022 being an off-year election, no state Senate seats are up for grabs. But each of the 124 S.C. House seats are. Due to gerrymandering by the GOP House, it’s a foregone conclusion that the chamber will remain in Republican hands.
Virtually all of the House seats in the Upstate – about 40 districts – heavily favor Republican candidates. When combined with gerrymandered seats in the rest of the state, look for the GOP to control at least 80 of the state’s House seats in 2023 — just as they do now.
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