By Andy Brack, editor and publisher | Strap in. The silly season is creeping up on us.
South Carolina’s primary elections are less than two months away. You’re about to get inundated with campaign literature, commercials, emails and lots of junk, particularly from gubernatorial candidates.
Up until now, the 2018 race for governor has been anything but titillating. In fact, it’s been pretty tame and dull. But that’s expected, in one sense because early campaign time is devoted mostly to raising enough money so candidates can stir up the party faithful later. And that “later” is now beginning.
Witness recent television ad buys by Republicans John Warren of Greenville and Catherine Templeton of Mount Pleasant, both of whom are trying to define themselves as they take on incumbent GOP Gov. Henry McMaster, who already has enough name recognition that he can keep his powder dry until election day is closer. The other two Republican candidates, Lt. Gov. Kevin Bryant of Anderson and his predecessor, Yancey McGill of Kingstree, haven’t raised much of a profile among primary voters.
The GOP challengers are taking two tacks: Warren and Templeton are pitching themselves at tough, conservative outsiders who say they’ll bring a business sense to Columbia. But Bryant and McGill, both of whom are seasoned former state senators, seek the state’s top job because of their experience. Bryant says he wants to protect liberty and bolster limited government. McGill says he wants to work with all people to fix the state’s big problems.
Meanwhile McMaster is using a veteran campaign machine to try to pick apart coalitions his opponents are trying to form. In the Upstate to counter Bryant, the governor is wooing pro-life conservatives by highlighting efforts to thwart Planned Parenthood. Across the state to combat threats by Templeton, who has almost matched him on fundraising, he picked a fresh face as running mate – Upstate businesswoman Pamela Evette – to show how he, the inveterate insider, can also be an outsider. For all Republicans, McMaster figures out ways to remind that he is close to President Donald Trump, still wildly popular among GOP primary voters.
At this point, the race seems to be McMaster’s to lose, unless he fumbles and gives voters a reason that he should be cast aside. Templeton’s bankroll may be enough to get her into a runoff, but at this point, the governor seems like the likely GOP nominee.
On the Democratic side, it’s refreshing for many that there actually is a contested primary. Perhaps that reflects a growing strength for the minority party that has seemed to step on its feet a lot in recent years.
This three-way primary race is between veteran state Rep. James Smith of Columbia, Charleston consultant Phil Noble and Columbia attorney Marguerite Willis. There hasn’t been much substance yet, although Noble frequently attacks Smith about guns using distorted information.
Like McMaster, Willis decided early to announce a running mate, state Sen. John Scott of Columbia. What makes her choice particularly interesting is the diversity of the ticket. Willis, married to a former Florence mayor and gubernatorial candidate, may be able to pick up support from black voters because Scott, a longtime Democratic player, is black.
Throughout the Democratic race, Smith has been the frontrunner. While he’s not flashy on the stump, his organization is building strength, as witnessed by the overwhelming number of small donors he has. In the last three months, for example, Smith received contributions from 2,625 individuals. That’s almost more than the number you get when you add up first quarter contributors for all of the other Democrats and Republicans in the race.
Over the next two months, look for Noble to continue to needle Smith, an attack strategy that’s off-putting for many in the party who want candidates to go after Republicans, not fellow Democrats. Meanwhile, Willis, whose coffers are about as full as Smith’s thanks to a big loan, should be able to get out her message, which could cause him some problems.
If 2018 becomes the Year of the Woman in South Carolina politics, Templeton and Willis are well-placed in terms of money to knock off one of the frontrunners. It’s happened before. Remember 2010 when a little-known candidate named Nikki Haley swept past three GOP candidates, including McMaster?
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