Our weekly Top Five feature offers big stories or views from the past week with policy and legislative implications.
1. Beware of phantom poll swings, YouGov, Nov. 1, 2016
This is a wonky article about polling but it highlights how huge swings during elections in short time periods probably aren’t reflective of reality, in part because it becomes harder to do good polling the closer an election date comes. Change, the writers say, shows up slowly (kind of like global warming?) Anyway, here’s a relevant excerpt:
“We believe that most of the bounces seen in surveys this year represent sampling noise that can be reduced or eliminated by adopting by better statistical methodology. We risk a repetition of 2012 where polling swings were largely statistical mirages. The convention and first debate bounces in 2012 were mostly the consequence of transitory variations in response rates. Fewer voters were changing their minds than were changing their inclination to respond to surveys.”
2. How to fix South Carolina’s mental health system, Spartanburg Herald-Journal, Nov. 1, 2016
This news story highlights progress and shortcomings in South Carolina since a report last year on what needed to be done to ensure mentally-ill state residents get the help they need. The report calls for multiple efforts, including schools getting more involved. An excerpt:
“In South Carolina, suicide is the leading cause of death of those ages 10-14; the third leading cause of those ages 15-24; and second leading cause for those ages 25-34. To combat suicide rates for those ages 10-24, the state Department of Mental Health recently received a federal grant to develop new suicide prevention strategies such as increasing access to screening and mental health services, raising awareness through social media and marketing and supporting evidence-based interventions.”
3. State lawmakers continue to talk about tax changes, The Post and Courier, Nov. 1, 2016
Members of a House tax policy committee are looking more deeply at some of the state’s $3 billion in sales tax exemptions — something editorialized about for years by Statehouse Report as a way to boost state revenues and promote equity. For this committee, reducing exemptions may lead to a lower state sales tax. Members, however, But seem to be backing away from raising gas taxes to help pay for billions in road needs. An excerpt:
“A reduction in the state income tax from 7 percent to under 5.5 percent is also being formulated by the panel. Pope said such a move would make the state more marketable and competitive with Georgia and North Carolina. South Carolina’s rate, which appears high, is effectively 2.99 percent after deductions and exemptions are factored. Still, many say the top income tax harms business recruitment and needs to be reduced.”
4. What works better than youth prisons, Misha Faruqee in Time, Oct. 26, 2016
The answer, this writer says, are community-based solutions that actually rehabilitate, rather than warehouse, kids:
“States from coast to coast could see a major reduction in costs associated with the juvenile justice system if youth prisons—which eat up billions of dollars each year—were shuttered in favor of alternatives that rehabilitate youth while promoting public safety. Fortunately, some elected officials are beginning to understand this reality, and increased public pressure can help swell their ranks. We have a real opportunity to build on the progress being made in these states in every jurisdiction across the country. We owe it to young people and their families to invest in community-based interventions that actually work. The models are there. It’s time to replicate and build on them to give young people access to services and supports that will keep us all safer. We can’t afford not to.”
5. How the Swiss turned back an anti-immigrant tide, Nadette de Visser in The Daily Beast, Nov. 2, 2016
Switzerland was on the brink of passing an anti-immigrant law earlier this year until a progressive group formed and beat back the populist opposition. An example for America? An excerpt:
“In Switzerland, the SVP populists found themselves up against a new grassroots movement, Operation Libero, that seemed to come from nowhere. The SVP referendum lost badly, and all of a sudden all eyes turned to a political newcomer—26-year-old driven, committed, and comely Flavia Kleiner, the movement’s co-president. … In the months since the referendum, Kleiner has become the new face of what might be called progressive moderation. Under her leadership, previously unengaged Swiss voters have found their voices and are mobilized.”
We Can Do Better, South Carolina!